The Numbers- and they don’t lie

by professor ggrib1

Well, loyal Jacket fans……. I’m guessing the casual fans are mostly gone now [already] {{ But they will come back with a winning streak}}. Let’s talk some facts. How are we doing 8 games in. I qualify that by the 8 games in, because it is still early. About 10% of the season is behind us. But it was a preseason conclusion that the start of the season was critical for the team’s playoff chances.  So, what are we seeing.

Season                                     2013-2014                                 2013

Goals  scored                                19                                              14

Goals allowed                              22                                              26

Wins                                               3                                                2

Points                                             6                                               5

* Predicted win %                       .419                                          .225

* Predicted wins is a mathematical statistic which becomes mostly valid after 25 games. It is and has been something I have tracked for several years and is mostly based on goals scored and allowed. I’ve published this stat and some explanation in the past and will again as we get deeper into the season.

So are you surprised? Despite the 4 game loss streak, which seemed like it was forever, the Jackets are ahead of last year in all the above categories. Are we satisfied? Are we happy? No, we want more, always more. But thinking a bit realistically, on a brick by brick basis, maybe the light at the end of the tunnel is not an onrushing train.

One last bit that is semi supported by facts. Ryan Johansen, has become the go to center for Todd Richardson on faceoffs. Example, Sunday nite Ryan did not have his best face off winning percentage, winning 10 of 20. But the next most faceoffs was Dubinski with 12. Not only that, Joey is playing well 19.21 ice time. on Sunday nite He has overcome the fans concerns over the summer by effort and performance. Thus a young gun is coming of age.

We Want the Cup

We Want the Cup

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