# Here I am with more numbers—again ~(:>)

by professor ggrib

While we wait through another long dry spell with no CBJ hockey, I thought I would again go through some numbers of the first 11 games. It’s seems strange why the Jackets have nly played 11 games while other teams have played 14, but it is what it is,,,,,, so, into the numbers.

As I alluded to in a previous post, I chart some numbers to obtain a predicted result. This is not the “on pace to” numbers which is simply expanded per game results but a bit more complicated. As stated below in the more detailed summary of the theory, the numbers become pretty solid after 25 games, so it is early. But here again are some stats 11 games into the season.

Goals for — 31  vs last year 23

Goals against–29 vs last year 36

Wins –5 vs last year 3

Points– 10 vs last year 8 {{{Note at this point last year we had 3 OT games and 2 points in OT losses}}}

Predicted winning %– 52 % vs last year 29%

So, although early and with the historical  knowledge that 23 % of NHL games go to some type of overtime, the projected points equate to 94 points……. good enough to get to the playoffs? But in any case better than last year when we ended up winning 50% even with the mad dash finish…… but by damm little.

Again this year we are seeing times of good Blue Jacket hockey and times where the team seems to forget how to play the system. We need to play hockey the whole game. Being close does not count in hockey, only in horseshoes and handgranades. There are some very positive signs on the ice, but we keep getting back to the point —-show me the money—-

And for those with serious interest, the following excerpts of the article mentioned.

#### Predicted Wins

One of the easiest sets of statistics to use to go beyond direct predictions based on record is a team’s scoring.

Derived from on the grade-school Pythagorean formula, sporting statsmen have proposed that a team’s winning percentage will be equal to to Goals For2/(Goals For2 + Goals Against2).
The predicted end-season wins stabilizes around the 25-game mark.

Whether this trend regresses towards the mean that James’ formula suggests is still up in the air of course, but the educated fan can at least use the formula to decide whether any late-season push is likely to be sustainable or end after only a short streak. That fan has a tool to hedge against the kind of performance the Wild put on in past years.

Predicted Points

Unfortunately, hockey’s single point makes for a problem, but while the Pythagorean formula does not easily take into account the NHL’s single point, at least wins account for the bulk of an NHL’s points. So we can cheat by incorporating a team’s direct single-point pace with the Pythagorean win prediction.

Only time will tell how accurate these predictions are, but at least the GF/GA formula offers even the casual fan a simple method to move beyond direct on-pace-for projections and move into the more sophisticated world of indirect statistical predictions.

Even Leonard Koppett might approve of that kind of statistical thinking.

We Want the Cup